Your Grocery Cart Depends on California’s Water — and Right Now, It’s in Trouble – September 2025 Blog Post

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If you’ve strolled through the produce section, you’ve seen California’s handiwork. Fresh strawberries in January. Crisp lettuce in March. Pistachios, tomatoes, grapes, lettuce — the list goes on. What most shoppers don’t realize is that much of this abundance comes from one place: the San Joaquin Valley. And that bounty depends on one thing above all else — water.

After three straight years of healthy Sierra Nevada snowpack and full reservoirs, you might assume farmers here are finally getting the water they need. They’re not. Many San Joaquin Valley growers who depend on the Central Valley Project (CVP) or State Water Project (SWP) are getting only about half of the water they’ve contracted for — in some areas, even less.

It’s not because there’s no water. It’s because of outdated infrastructure and rigid, decades-old environmental rules that limit how much can actually be delivered to farms. In wet years, these policies prevent us from storing enough for the dry ones. That gap between supply and need is more than a headache for farmers — it’s a looming threat to your grocery basket.

Without changes, the Public Policy Institute of California estimates that 650,000 to 900,000 acres of farmland could be permanently lost in the San Joaquin Valley. That’s hundreds of thousands of acres that will never again grow the fruits, vegetables, and nuts you buy every week. With even one million additional acre-feet of water annually — a relatively modest amount — that loss could be cut nearly in half.

Failing to act will ripple far beyond the farm. Less farmland means fewer jobs, both on and off the farm — 40,000 to 50,000 jobs could vanish — and shutter food processing facilities, put the brakes on trucking, and other service industries. That’s $1.1 billion in lost wages and $242 million in lost local tax revenue, money that funds schools, roads, and public safety.

The good news? We can fix this. Smarter water management — including modernized canals, better groundwater recharge, and more flexible water trading — could keep hundreds of thousands of acres in production. This isn’t about subsidizing agriculture. It’s about preserving a reliable, affordable, and diverse food supply for every American household.

Next time you fill your grocery cart, remember: the oranges, salads, and pistachios you love don’t magically appear. They grow in fields that need a steady, dependable water supply. If fields go dry, food choices at the store will shrink — and prices will rise. 

Investing in California infrastructure and making sure we have sensible water management policies doesn’t just mean water for farms and jobs in rural communities; it means food at the store we all depend on.